Consumer Confidence Survey
RBI's Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS) is a bi-monthly household survey conducted in major Indian cities that measures current and future perceptions of households on general economic conditions, employment, income, price levels, and spending intentions, providing a demand-side sentiment indicator for the economy.
The RBI Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted bi-monthly across 13 cities — Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, Bhopal, Chennai, Delhi, Guwahati, Hyderabad, Jaipur, Kolkata, Lucknow, Mumbai, Patna, and Thiruvananthapuram — covering approximately 5,400 households. The survey has been running since 2010, providing a reasonably long time series.
The survey asks households about their current perceptions and one-year-ahead expectations across five parameters: general economic conditions, employment conditions, price levels, household income, and household spending. Responses are recorded on a five-point scale and converted into net responses (proportion of positive responses minus proportion of negative responses). These net responses generate two headline indices: the Current Situation Index (CSI) and the Future Expectations Index (FEI).
The divergence between CSI and FEI is analytically important. A high FEI with a low CSI suggests households are optimistic about the future but dissatisfied with current conditions — a pattern observed in India during the pandemic recovery phase when mobility restrictions depressed current sentiment but vaccine rollout boosted future expectations. Conversely, a declining FEI after a period of optimism can be an early warning signal of demand slowdown.
The price level component of the survey is particularly closely watched by RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) alongside the separate Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH). When consumers expect higher future prices, their real purchasing power perception declines even if nominal wages grow, potentially dampening consumption. The RBI uses these surveys as supplementary inputs to its inflation forecasting and policy deliberations.
Spending intentions in the CCS — specifically the component on major purchases (durable goods, automobiles, housing) — are leading indicators for discretionary consumption. A recovery in major purchase intentions precedes actual spending by 1-2 quarters, making the CCS useful for companies in consumer durables, automobile, and real estate sectors for demand forecasting.