Consumer Confidence Index
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a bi-monthly survey conducted by the Reserve Bank of India that measures households' perceptions of current economic conditions and their expectations for the year ahead, covering general economic conditions, employment, income, spending, and price levels.
The RBI conducts the Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS) across 19 major Indian cities, covering approximately 5,400 households per round. The survey generates two primary indices: the Current Situation Index (CSI), which reflects households' views on current conditions relative to a year ago, and the Future Expectations Index (FEI), which captures their outlook for the year ahead. Each question produces a Net Response (percentage reporting improvement minus percentage reporting deterioration), and the indices are constructed from these net responses.
India's CCI showed sharp deterioration during the COVID-19 lockdowns of 2020, with the CSI recording the lowest readings in the survey's history. Recovery was gradual and uneven—urban households, particularly higher-income ones, regained confidence faster than lower-income groups due to the K-shaped nature of the economic recovery. Rural confidence, influenced by agricultural income and food prices, is tracked separately and often diverges from urban trends.
A key feature of the Indian CCI is the consistent gap between current perceptions and future expectations. Households persistently report weak current conditions but stronger expectations for the future—a phenomenon economists call 'optimism bias.' This gap widened dramatically during COVID and narrowed as the economy normalised. Periods where both CSI and FEI are rising together are the strongest signals of genuine consumer-driven economic momentum.
The spending intentions component is particularly valuable. Rising willingness to spend on non-essentials—consumer durables, holidays, discretionary services—is a positive signal for the retail consumption theme in equities. Conversely, deteriorating spending intentions despite income growth may signal precautionary saving behaviour, which can dampen earnings in consumer-discretionary sectors.
The RBI publishes full CCI results on its website along with the monetary policy documents. Analysts overlay CCI trends with high-frequency data such as two-wheeler sales, UPI transaction volumes, and GST collections to build a composite picture of consumer demand conditions.